Name: INCYTE CORP Q4 2024 Earnings Call
Start: 2025-02-10T13:01:00.000Z

Executive Summary

Q4 2024 total GAAP revenue was $1,178.7M (+16% YoY) with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.02 and Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.43, reflecting strong execution across Jakafi and Opzelura and increased Monjuvi contribution .
Management issued 2025 guidance: Jakafi $2,925–$2,975M, Opzelura $630–$670M, Other Oncology $415–$455M; COGS 8.5–9.0% (GAAP), R&D $1,930–$1,960M, SG&A $1,280–$1,310M, with non-GAAP ranges provided; catalysts include four launches and four pivotal readouts in 2025 .
Sequential momentum: Q2→Q3→Q4 revenues rose from $1,043.8M to $1,137.9M to $1,178.7M; GAAP operating income improved from a Q2 loss to $146.1M in Q3 and $301.5M in Q4 as one-time acquisition/milestone costs rolled off .
Management highlighted PV as the fastest-growing Jakafi indication (35% of patients) and reiterated Opzelura’s ex-U.S. uptake and expected Q1 seasonality; ruxolitinib XR achieved bioequivalence, with FDA submission by year-end 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- “We delivered another strong year… total revenues growing 15% versus 2023 to reach $4.2 billion” and diversified with Opzelura growth; ended 2024 with $2.2B in cash and no debt .
- Jakafi: Q4 net product revenue +11% YoY to $773M, paid demand +14%; PV strength with 35% of patients, anticipating continued growth in 2025 .
- Opzelura: Q4 net product revenue $162M (+48% YoY), $24M ex-U.S. in Q4; FY 2024 $508M (+50% YoY); expanding reimbursement in Europe and pediatric AD sNDA filed, approval anticipated H2’25 .
What Went Wrong
- FY 2024 GAAP operating income fell sharply (to $61.4M) due to Escient-acquisition IPR&D ($679.4M), $38.0M related compensation/severance, and $100M MacroGenics milestone; GAAP net income dropped to $32.6M .
- COGS rate expected higher in 2025 (8.5–9.0%) driven by manufacturing costs and Niktimvo U.S. profit share accounting in COGS .
- Medicare Part D redesign complexities may delay immediate benefit from $2,000 OOP cap, while 340B growth offsets some gross-to-net savings for Jakafi .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total GAAP Revenues ($USD Thousands)	$1,043,759	$1,137,871	$1,178,698
GAAP Operating Income ($USD Thousands)	$(478,130)	$146,085	$301,513
Non-GAAP Operating Income ($USD Thousands)	$(378,801)	$255,236	$376,265
GAAP Net Income ($USD Thousands)	$(444,601)	$106,456	$201,212
Non-GAAP Net Income ($USD Thousands)	$(396,132)	$209,651	$281,353
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(2.04)	$0.54	$1.02
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(1.82)	$1.07	$1.43

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Total GAAP Revenues ($USD Thousands)	$1,013,341	$1,178,698
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.89	$1.02
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$1.06	$1.43
GAAP Operating Income ($USD Thousands)	$187,270	$301,513
Non-GAAP Operating Income ($USD Thousands)	$267,702	$376,265

Segment/Product and Royalty Breakdown

Metric ($USD Thousands)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Jakafi Net Product Revenues	$705,973	$741,181	$773,114
Opzelura Net Product Revenues	$121,695	$139,272	$161,602
Iclusig Net Product Revenues	$26,862	$29,745	$27,369
Pemazyre Net Product Revenues	$20,269	$20,661	$23,142
Minjuvi/Monjuvi Net Product Revenues	$31,116	$31,439	$32,807
Zynyz Net Product Revenues	$651	$694	$1,373
Total Net Product Revenues	$906,566	$962,992	$1,019,407
Jakavi Royalty Revenues	$99,317	$115,741	$114,187
Olumiant Royalty Revenues	$31,702	$34,796	$38,485
Tabrecta Royalty Revenues	$5,298	$5,928	$6,286
Pemazyre Royalty Revenues	$876	$414	$333
Total Royalty Revenues	$137,193	$156,879	$159,291
Milestone & Contract Revenues	$0	$18,000	$0
Total GAAP Revenues	$1,043,759	$1,137,871	$1,178,698

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Jakafi Paid Demand Growth (YoY)	+9%	N/A	+14%
Jakafi Total Demand Growth (YoY)	—	+10%	+9%
Jakafi Patient Mix – PV Share	—	—	35% of patients
Opzelura ex-U.S. Net Product Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$11,000	$20,000	$24,000

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Jakafi Net Product Revenues	FY 2025	N/A	$2,925–$2,975M	New
Opzelura Net Product Revenues	FY 2025	N/A	$630–$670M	New
Other Oncology Net Product Revenues	FY 2025	N/A	$415–$455M	New
GAAP Cost of Product Revenues	FY 2025	N/A	8.5%–9.0% of net product revenues	New
Non-GAAP Cost of Product Revenues	FY 2025	N/A	7.5%–8.0% of net product revenues	New
GAAP R&D Expenses	FY 2025	N/A	$1,930–$1,960M	New
Non-GAAP R&D Expenses	FY 2025	N/A	$1,780–$1,805M	New
GAAP SG&A Expenses	FY 2025	N/A	$1,280–$1,310M	New
Non-GAAP SG&A Expenses	FY 2025	N/A	$1,160–$1,185M	New

Note: Management clarified 2025 COGS increase due to manufacturing costs and Niktimvo profit-sharing accounting in COGS .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Opzelura adoption and ex-U.S. ramp	EU reimbursement expanding; ex-U.S. $11M in Q2	Ex-U.S. $20M; strong YoY growth	Ex-U.S. $24M; 2025 guidance $630–$670M; Q1 seasonality caution	Accelerating outside U.S.; seasonal Q1 dip expected
Jakafi PV-driven growth	Paid demand +9%	Growth across indications	PV now 35% of patients; paid demand +14% in Q4	PV becoming largest contributor
Medicare Part D/IRA impact	—	—	OOP cap at $2,000; process may delay immediate benefit; gross-to-net savings offset by 340B	Policy transition headwind/offsets
Povorcitinib HS readout expectations	Phase 3 ongoing; data flow plans	HS data anticipated; program advancing	Significant/clinically meaningful HiSCR50 at week 12 targeted; safety profile emphasized	Readout in H1 2025; efficacy focus
Ruxolitinib XR	XR study enrolling	Data anticipated H1 2025	Bioequivalence achieved (AUC, Cmin); FDA submission by year-end 2025	Milestone achieved; toward 2026 commercialization
Niktimvo (axatilimab)	FDA approvals in Q2/Q3 updates	Approved and highlighted	Launch underway; profit-sharing affects COGS	Commercialization started

Management Commentary

Hervé Hoppenot: “We delivered another strong year… total revenues growing 15% versus 2023 to reach $4.2 billion… we saw strong growth from our non-Jakafi revenue, primarily driven by Opzelura… We ended 2024 with $2.2 billion in cash and no debt” .
Pablo Cagnoni: “Bioequivalency… ruxolitinib 55 mg extended release… once-a-day formulation… bioequivalent to twice a day ruxolitinib… plan to submit for approval by the end of the year once stability studies are completed” .
Christiana Stamoulis: “Q4 revenues of $1.2 billion, up 16%… driven by demand growth for Jakafi and Opzelura… increased revenue contribution from Monjuvi” .
Hervé Hoppenot: “PV… now accounting for 35% of the patients on Jakafi… we expect PV to become the largest contributor… supported by MAGIC PV study” .

Q&A Highlights

Opzelura guidance drivers and seasonality: 2025 guidance implies 24–32% YoY growth, driven by U.S. AD/vitiligo demand, potential pediatric AD launch, and Europe; Q1 revenue expected below Q4 due to deductibles and seasonality .
Povorcitinib HS endpoints: Focus on HiSCR50 at week 12; aim for statistically significant and clinically meaningful effects across HiSCR levels and pain; Phase III design aligns with Phase II efficacy profile, with antibiotic-use rules consistent across trials .
Medicare Part D redesign: $2,000 OOP cap may take time for patients to realize; expected savings in Part D offset by 340B growth; gross-to-net considerations persist .
Ruxolitinib XR commercialization: Submission by year-end 2025; commercialization targeted for 2026, providing ~2.5-year window before first twice-daily generic (2029) .
BET inhibitor and frontline strategy: Advancing as monotherapy post-Jakafi in MF; additional data needed for first-line combo path with Jakafi .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS were unavailable at the time of this analysis due to data access limits. As a result, beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus cannot be assessed at this time.
Where estimates materially inform trading decisions (e.g., EPS surprises), consider revisiting when S&P Global data are accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue momentum with sequential growth Q2→Q3→Q4 and strong YoY EPS expansion in Q4 reflects demand strength and reduced one-time expense drag .
Jakafi’s PV-driven expansion (35% mix, paid demand +14%) positions FY 2025 growth of 5–7% YoY, but monitor IRA price caps and 340B impacts on net pricing and gross-to-net .
Opzelura’s ex-U.S. uptake (Germany/France; expanding to Italy/Spain) plus potential pediatric AD approval underpins 2025 guidance; plan for Q1 seasonality and adherence initiatives to drive refill behavior .
Pipeline catalysts are near-term and numerous: povorcitinib HS pivotal readouts (H1’25), rux XR submission (YE’25), and potential approvals for tafasitamab FL and retifanlimab SCAC (H2’25), supporting diversification .
COGS expected to step-up in 2025 due to Niktimvo profit share; R&D/SG&A investments remain elevated but targeted as programs mature—monitor operating leverage progression .
Cash of ~$2.16B at year-end provides strategic flexibility post $2B buyback and Escient acquisition; balance sheet supports launch readiness and clinical milestones .
Near-term trading: watch HS/topical PN data and any 2025 guidance updates; medium-term thesis: execution on launches/readouts and Opzelura adherence/ex-U.S. ramp key to de-risk revenue diversification .

INCYTE CORP (INCY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary